Understanding the Statistical Forecasting Option

1. Select Sales on the left hand nav 
2. Click Forecast
3. Click Ship To and navigate to the forecast version you want to view 
4. Here, you'll see the forecast by Customer
5. Click the arrow next to the customer and view the Product Lines
6. Click the arrow next to the Product Line to view the metrics deriving the forecasted volume
7. Here, you'll see lines for Consumption (actuals), Order Adjustment, and the Statistical Recommendation
   1. Order Adjustments can be tracked by both Units or % and applied on the selected forecast 
      
      1. Adjustment Units 
      2. Adjustment % (Percentage of Consumption on selected forecast)
      3. Note: These are independent values, one or both can be inputted and will be additive 
   2. Confido Statistical Recommendations are displayed to help inform the total Monthly Forecast per product. We use four different models to inform the outputs 
      1. Moving Average: Utilized on every projection 
      2. Holt Winters:
      3. SARIMA: 
      4. Markov: Utilized when there is scarce or variable data  
         1. Note: The statistical models are making recommendations based off historical data to inform the total Actual number see in the forecast  
         2. Note: The models will show on every line and cannot be modified at this time 

1. Click the Line Chart to visualize the last 6 months of historical data and see the models projections
   1. Note: you can select toggle the model assumptions off to view without 

Confido also allows you to compare forecasts to help inform demand plan and changes either over time or within forecasts. 

1. Select Sales on the left hand nav 
2. Click Forecast
3. Click Ship To and navigate to the forecast version you want to view 
4. Click Compare 
5. Select the forecast versions or years you want to compare 
6. Select if you want to include Actuals 
7. Click Compare